Who’s the best fit to join the Sun Belt?

Well, it's official. James Madison is leaving the Sun Belt sometime before 2028. Now, it's replacement time for the Belt. No matter what happens, the wheels of conference realignment will continue to turn, so it leaves us these questions: who should we grab, what do they add and who is a cultural fit?

One of the top candidates I’ve seen to replace JMU are the Liberty Flames. Most Troy fans and students would know them for landing the Campbell brothers in the transfer portal after coach Scott Cross left for Georgia Tech.

However, Liberty is possibly the worst add for the Sun Belt for a couple of reasons. One, Liberty outspends everyone in their current conference, Conference USA, by a good bit. According to Knight New House Data, their entire athletics budget in 2022 was $859.18 million, while the CUSA median was $492.13 million. If Liberty was given an invite to the Sun Belt, they would be using the upgrade in money to outspend the conference again and dominate similarly to what JMU has done.

Secondly, Liberty is almost a shoe in to the American Conference, an upgrade over the Sun Belt. Liberty is one of the few mid-major football programs to make a New Years Six bowl game. They did lose, but that stage and media presence led to more money and more exposure. Why would Liberty join a conference like the SBC when they can jump from the CUSA to the American and get a better media presence?

In my opinion, the Sun Belt needs a regional team that will be loyal to the conference for longer than JMU. Liberty is definitely a regional school that fits in our footprint, but they are on too steep of an upward trajectory.

Next, Western Kentucky and Middle Tennessee State, since they are considered “tied at the hip.” The Sun Belt made a decent move when Texas State left by adding Louisiana Tech. Tech is great for rivalries, but it triples down on a state in the conference that had a pretty decent team with the Cajuns, but a historically bad team in ULM. Western Kentucky is most definitely the best of what’s left in CUSA. Middle Tennessee isn’t great in football, but expanding the footprint to get into Tennessee would be valuable to the SBC.

The only issue with adding these two is that the conference would expand from 14 to 16. If you add WKU and MTSU, someone from the west division would need to move divisions. It would either be Troy, who was historically in the east before 2022, or MTSU themselves. Western Kentucky and Middle Tennessee are only a good add if you value footprint expansion.

Next up, Ohio from the MAC. Last year during the Texas State replacement, their athletics officials had “preliminary discussions” with the Sun Belt, according to Yahoo Sports. In my opinion, Ohio expands the footprint too far north.

Marshall is in Huntington, West Virginia; Ohio is in Athens, Ohio, which is around an hour and a half from Marshall. Ohio is good for Marshall as it adds a primary rival within the conference, but it doesn’t add much else to the rest of the conference and might even hinder the Belt. Athens, Ohio, is a little bit farther than already the farthest SBC team, and for Olympic sports and non-revenue sports in the west, the costs can add up. Ohio is too far to be a good fit for the entire conference, even for the eastern schools.

Lastly, a couple wild cards for the conference that would be super fun for the rivalries: Jacksonville State, Missouri State, East Carolina and Kennesaw State. I don’t think any of these will actually happen, but it would be so fun.

Jax State is a great add for South and Troy, but it triples down on another state, a decision that Sun Belt fans didn’t agree with when La Tech got added. Missouri State is a fun one, but it only really helps Arkansas State. They played each other in the Xbox Bowl last season, and Springfield, Missouri, isn’t that far of a drive away from Jonesboro, AR. The only issues with adding them is they’re new to the FBS and the distance from some of the East Schools.

East Carolina would be a dream add for the SBC; it adds a bigger university to the conference and could make for some fun rivalries in the east, but the only issue is East Carolina is in the American, the same conference JMU left for. It wouldn’t make sense for ECU to leave the American to fill the hole of an SBC team. While it would be quite fun, it’s probably not happening.

Kennesaw State is a fun one, fast growing athletics brand that recently just won the CUSA, but the same issues with Jax State stay with Kennesaw: the SBC would be tripling down on a state that already has two teams. Kennesaw State would be a cool investment into a fast-growing brand, but it wouldn’t make sense for the current sphere of the Sun Belt.

Now that we’ve analyzed the potential additions, what do I think the Sun Belt should do? Well, the SBC is maybe the most prideful and hateful conference in the mid-majors. Adding a school that has beef with existing SBC schools is essential to keep the brand the conference has built up already. It is also smart to get into more states to expand your conference footprint and give schools more recruiting grounds. I say all of this to say that expanding to 16 full members would build up the Sun Belt brand to compete with the American. I think the smartest addition would be either Western Kentucky for football prominence, Middle Tennessee for rivalries and footprint expansion or Ohio for footprint expansion.